The issues to focus upon in this Forum is how might one evaluate a scientific area of importance to public policy where major conclusions are drawn not from confirmed measurement, but indirectly, from computer models. These models are usually admitted to be inexact by their formulators due to the multiple and complex phenomena that is being studied., and due to the massive and varied data that must be used. The data itself is subject to multiple controversies concerning accuracy, sufficiency, and interpretation. The models are, in some cases, admitted to include highly simplified parametrized representations due to the difficulty of obtaining correct and complete data sets of key parts of the world climate system. For example, our understanding of the physics of clouds is remarkably incomplete and their treatment within global climate models is necessarily simplified and, perhaps, incorrect.  Moreover, critics of climate model analyses make claims of sampling bias and dubious statistical methods as being rather ubiquitous in most, if not all, approaches used in the field of climate science.  Advocates claim constant improvement. What then is a concerned responsible non-specialist policy maker to conclude? How can policy be formulated? Can philosophical concepts assist in such determination?

The papers included in this form present a variety of methodologies, conclusions and perspectives. A thorough understanding of many areas of physics, chemistry, mathematics and applied statistics would be required to understand these papers completely and to judge their significance. This is not expected of you. The goal is to understand as much as possible and to draw your own conclusions as best as possible. It is recommended that you distinguish what is clearly understandable in each paper and what requires specialized knowledge and experience.  The questions emphasize the uncertainty entailed in the methodology used and the conclusions drawn in all the papers. When answering the questions,  state what you are confident you understand and explain how you draw your conclusions from this understanding. Then state what you do not understand about the papers, outline what you might have to know and learn to actually understand the material, and, finally, suggest how your conclusions may be defective due to your limited knowledge. You are requested to do so because identification of areas where one lacks understanding and awareness of the consequential limited scope of one’s own conclusions are distinguishing characteristic of significant scientific thought. 

Much of this Forum’s focus is on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity because this quantity has become the focus of current public and political debate concerning the status of climate science, and, perhaps, via political rhetoric, of all public policy positions that entail the use of scientific conclusions. A central goal of this course is to enable you to evaluate how well based the public positions that you have encountered are on the scientific conclusions and to the entailed scientific limitations of those results that necessarily follow from methodological issues of assessing the reliability of measurements, deciding which measurement are relevant, and assessing how appropriate statistical analysis should be conducted.  Uncertainty is pervasive in genuine scientific work.It is worthwhile to consider to what degree public discourse concerning the application of science in public policy admits to the consequences of that uncertainty. This Forum’s questions involve this issue but concentrate more on detailing matters of uncertainty.  It is often more important and productive to delineate what one does not understand than what one knows.

There is a great deal of reading and evaluation to be undertaken to understand the material of this forum. Therefore this assignment is to be completed by the end of the semester.

Specifically:

1- What are the observational methods of climate science? What are the methods of analysis of observations? What are the significant conclusions?

2- What are the sources of uncertainty about the observations and analysis used in Climate Science? List as many as possible and describe the significance of each. Note in particular and discuss each of the papers listed as “Possibly Unpopular”  in Section 4, below.

3- What is Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity? Discuss (all) the various claims concerning the nature and uncertainty of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity as presented in the papers of Group 1. Evaluate these various claims. Why is Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity important for public policy? What specific conclusions would you draw from your reading of (all) the papers included in this Forum,  concerning public policy based on estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity? How do you arrive at your specific conclusions?

4- What are the main issues in the philosophy of Climate Science?

5- How may ‘tuning’ be reconciled with scientific methodology accounted for by any or all of the philosophical concepts or attitudes of confirmation reasoning, disconformation reasoning, deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, Quine-Duhem thesis, falsifiability,  instrumentalism, realism.  Can a scientific theory be ‘tuned’ as described in these papers, and still be reliable?  Can a tuned theory be philosophically and scientifically justified? Please exactly how?

Finally

6- Which of the following papers are well-written,

which are unnecessarily difficult,

which are obscure or difficult due to the specialized nature of the subject matter (some are),

which are tendentious and why?

Websites for General Reference and Additional Reports:
https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/climate-science/
https://www.cfanclimate.net/research-publications
https://www.thegwpf.org/

Attached is the documents that the professor provided!
Also attached is the course textbook- Worldviews: Richard DeWitt

Professors Instructions:
Some of the first questions we encounter have to do with what human geography is, what are geographic questions and how do geographers use maps. I think that by considering the following hypothetical situation you might be able to place these questions in a more tangible context. Imagine that you have the job of finding new CVS locations in town (just what we need – more CVS’s!). What are some questions you might ask and geographic data sets that might help with this task.

Professors Instructions:

One could define policies that are objective or that don’t favor one region over another as being fair; those that are subjective and appear to play favorites as unfair. As congress contemplates another gargantuan Covid-19 aid package, outside of some basic priorities such as help with workers health and cost of living, what are some ways that the money could be spent and why or why not would you consider this fair? For example, one thing under discussion is a huge infrastructure spending emphasis. One thing I have not heard discussed but could be is spending to reduce the impacts of climate change. What do you think? State at least one example and be sure to identify who this spending helps and what kind of development it is likely to promote.

Write an essay (with introduction and conclusion) on the suggested topic.
Your introduction should include the thesis statement – main idea of the paper (here is more detailed explanation – https://essayshark.com/blog/how-to-write-a-thesis-statement-to-make-it-clear/). Don’t include any new information in the conclusion. It should  restate the thesis statement of the paper.
Support your ideas with relevant arguments and examples (in-text citations). List 2-3 sources in the references. Make sure you stick to a required formatting style. Get benefits of these sources citationmachine.net and easybib.com.
MLA format – https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/747/01/ https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/mla_style/mla_formatting_and_style_guide/mla_in_text_citations_the_basics.html

Examining the relationship between public art, place, and identity can inform our understanding of urban experience. Public art may be used to promote a citys image, as an attempt to revitalize neighborhoods, and as a means to strengthen existing notions of place identity. Geographers have become interested in these issues because they speak to the contexts in which the identities of places are contested and negotiated.
Select a neighborhood with significant public art (at least three pieces) and create a photo-essay that elaborates why the art pieces work so well (or dont) in that place.

Construct a map linking your piece of public art to other things in the community that you feel are associated with the art.
Write a short introduction to the photo-essay (~ 400 words).
There is to be no text on your photo-essay, but the images should answer the following
questions:

  History/ Context: The art from cool perspectives. Where is it located? How is it located? What of significance is nearby?

  Identity of Place: How does the public art relate to place, identity and at what scale? How does it try to reflect the identity of for example: Barrio Logan, San Diego, southern California, the United States, or the ‘global community? Does it fit the place? Does it promote, strengthen, or reinforce whatever place/identity the art is directed towards by strengthening already existing representations of that place?

  Controversy: Can you identify in your photo-essay any controversies about the art? What is the relationship between whom the art is directed towards and the local community? Is it inclusive or exclusive of different identity groups past or present?

In 2019, the first modern world pandemic, Covid-19, purportedly began in a local Chinese wet market (where live animals are killed). The risk of pathogens jumping from animals to humans has always been there, the difference now is that diseases are likely to spring up in both urban and natural environments. We have created densely packed populations where we live alongside bats, rodents, pets, birds and other living things. The dense packings means that diseases such as Ebola, Sars, bird flu, Covid-19 spread quickly. Global urbanization means that infections are transmitted first to the large metropolitan areas, and then later to more rural locations. The 2019/20 Covid-19 pandemic mandated a global shut-down for the first time in modern history, with consequential changes in local areas. With sheltering in place many people gained an appreciation of their local areas with concomitant connections world-wide through social media and the Internet.

Write a 1000 word paper that answers the question posed below while spending some time developing the story of Covid-19 as a city phenomenon and its effects on local and global connectivity to our urban lifestyles.
How has Covid-19 impacted urban life? In what ways was global urbanism responsible for the new coronavirus outbreak? In what ways was global urbanism responsible for the spread of the novel coronavirus? How do the relations between urbanism and nature relate to pandemics? In what ways do peoples sense of place change during shelter-in-place orders? What do you think will change in a post- pandemic urban environment?

As part of your paper, create a map that documents the diffusion of Covid-19 as a global urban phenomenon.

When we started this semester, I said there was going to be an event that made the news headlines, and then we watched the Covid19 develop in China. I remember when there were 450 cases and 22 deaths in China. Then it became a pandemic.

We have lived through a most remarkable semester that I am sure we will long remember. The corona virus pandemic of 2020 will be studied for the changes it brought to our societies.

As geographers, I want you to apply the knowledge you gained about systems interacting which other systems and write about how the virus will impact the future. Include these systems in your multi-page essay worth 100 points.

1)  Economy

2)  Food

3)  Health

4)  Energy

5) Climate

6) Travel

7) YOU